Analysis - Sea Ice Today
  • Sea ice

Arctic sea ice reaches a below-average maximum

Arctic sea ice has likely reached its maximum extent for the year, at 15.01 million square kilometers (5.80 million square miles) on March 14. The 2024 maximum is the fourteenth lowest in the 46-year satellite record.

Overview of conditions

On March 14, 2024, Arctic sea ice likely reached its maximum extent for the year, at 15.01 million square kilometers (5.80 million square miles), the fourteenth lowest extent in the satellite record. This year’s maximum extent is 640,000 square kilometers (247,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average maximum of 15.65 million square kilometers (6.04 million square miles) and 600,000 square kilometers (232,000 square miles) above the lowest maximum of 14.41 million square kilometers (5.56 million square miles) set on March 7, 2017.

The date of the maximum this year, March 14, was two days later than the 1981 to 2010 average date of March 12.

Arctic sea ice extent for March 14, 2024, was 15.01 million square kilometers (5.80 million square miles).
Figure 1. Arctic sea ice extent for March 14, 2024, was 15.01 million square kilometers (5.80 million square miles). The orange line shows the 1981 to 2010 average extent for that day. Sea Ice Index data. About the data — Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center

Conditions in context

The ice growth season ended with near average sea ice extent in Baffin Bay, average extent in the Bering Sea, above average in the northern portion of the Sea of Okhotsk and Greenland Sea, and below average in the Barents Sea. Extent was well below average in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and the southern portion of the Sea of Okhotsk.

Since the maximum on March 14, extent has dropped about 160,000 square kilometers (62,000 square miles), with losses in the northern portion of the Sea of Okhotsk and the Bering Sea. These losses have been offset by gains in the Barents Sea and Gulf of St. Lawrence.

The downward linear trend in Arctic sea ice maximum extent from1979 to 2024 is 39,800 square kilometers (15,400 square miles) per year, or 2.5 percent per decade relative to the 1981 to 2010 average. Based on the linear trend values, the maximum extent has declined 1.79 million square kilometers (691,000 square miles) since 1979. This is equivalent to the size of Alaska or five times the size of Germany.

The graph above shows Arctic sea ice extent as of March 14, 2024, along with daily ice extent data for four previous years and the record low year. 2023 to 2024 is shown in blue, 2022 to 2023 in green, 2021 to 2022 in orange, 2020 to 2021 in brown, 2019 to 2020 in magenta, and 2011 to 2012 in dashed brown. The 1981 to 2010 median is in dark gray.
Figure 2. The graph above shows Arctic sea ice extent as of March 14, 2024, along with daily ice extent data for four previous years and the record low year. 2023 to 2024 is shown in blue, 2022 to 2023 in green, 2021 to 2022 in orange, 2020 to 2021 in brown, 2019 to 2020 in magenta, and 2011 to 2012 in dashed brown. The 1981 to 2010 median is in dark gray. The gray areas around the median line show the interquartile and interdecile ranges of the data. Sea Ice Index data. — Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center

Table 1. Ten lowest maximum Arctic sea ice extents (satellite record, 1979 to present)

RankYearIn millions of square kilometersIn millions of square milesDate
1201714.415.56March 7
2201814.475.59March 17
3

2016

2015

14.51

14.52

5.60

5.61

March 23

February 25

5202314.625.64March 6
6

2011

2006

14.67

14.68

5.66

5.67

March 9

March 12

8

2007

2021

14.77

14.78

5.70

5.71

March 12

March 12

10201914.825.72March 13

For the Arctic maximum, which typically occurs in March, the uncertainty range is ~34,000 square kilometers (13,000 square miles), meaning that extents within this range must be considered effectively equal.